Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
condition
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?
12 forecasters
if yes
if no
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2030-03-07
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2030-03-11
7
no comments
0
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
53 forecasters
6
17 comments
17
Regulation of AI
Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
50 forecasters
10
6 comments
6
Regulation of AI
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.34
27 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
Business of AI
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
17.2%
54 forecasters
6
8 comments
8
Regulation of AI
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
159 forecasters
10
7 comments
7
Effective Institutions Project
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
9 forecasters
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-04-19
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2025-11-23
Resolved :
Annulled
4
no comments
0