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Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?
Ivanivske
95%
Velyka Novosilka
77%
Kostyantynivka
70%
13 others
21
84 comments
84
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
2025-12-21
223 forecasters
34
63 comments
63
Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
20%
67 forecasters
8
12 comments
12
Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?
35%
630 forecasters
47
182 comments
182
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
1%
1132 forecasters
44
291 comments
291
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
1%
56 forecasters
5
no comments
0
Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
1%
126 forecasters
10
4 comments
4
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
0.1%
959 forecasters
19
28 comments
28
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
0.3%
217 forecasters
20
123 comments
123
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