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Will a rogue Artificial Intelligence system, acting autonomously, cause at least the following numbers of deaths before 2050?

1

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1524 forecasters

202

482 comments482

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

6

Chinese AI Chips

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1432 forecasters

176

488 comments488

Before 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?

Resolved :Annulled

213 forecasters

28

Regulation of AI

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

182 forecasters

13

Regulation of AI

How many of the 10 most important advancements in machine learning or artificial intelligence of 2025-2030 will have been discovered by an AI system?

1

Threshold 2030 Econ Forecasting

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

20

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

1459 forecasters

221

146 comments146

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Google DeepMind

9

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee