Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
40%
66 forecasters
5
14 comments
14
Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
78%
92 forecasters
11
25 comments
25
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
2029-05-11
118 forecasters
33
38 comments
38
When will the first human baby be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova?
2034-10-07
38 forecasters
13
17 comments
17
Will any (non-UK) European Union member state grant regulatory approval for clinical trials using human embryonic stem cells by the end of May?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
40%
50 forecasters
6
10 comments
10
By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?
Resolved :
Yes
30%
525 forecasters
123
43 comments
43
Playing God Series
When will the first cloned human be born?
2040-08-28
131 forecasters
28
19 comments
19
When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?
2043-09-15
93 forecasters
27
34 comments
34
When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?
2034-01-29
72 forecasters
19
15 comments
15
How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?
40.6
117 forecasters
35
14 comments
14
Load More