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Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

8

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

125 forecasters

15

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

14

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?

224 forecasters

23

Regulation of AI

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

9

AI Technical Benchmarks

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

Anthropic AI Claude, not optional

OpenAI GPT-4, not optional

OpenAI GPT-4, optional

6

Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?

199 forecasters

10

Musk LLM Release before 2024?

Elon Musk World's Richest Person 2025

Elon Musk World's Richest Person 2025

Resolved :Annulled

3

Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?

226 forecasters

16

Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023?

When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

Resolved :Annulled

When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

4