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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1507 forecasters

184

513 comments513

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1588 forecasters

209

508 comments508

AI Progress Essay Contest

If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?

4

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

298 forecasters

34

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

235 forecasters

44

As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?

Resolved :Jun 2, 20302035-05-31

13

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

14

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

23

3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

7

Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

Resolved :Annulled2025-11-23

4