When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?18 Aug 2028 (23 Dec 2026 - Aug 2032)223623623 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters18 Aug 2028 (23 Dec 2026 - Aug 2032)
When will gross world product exceed every previous year by 30% due to AI?Jan 2042 (Sep 2031 - 2081)266565 comments178178 forecastersJan 2042 (Sep 2031 - 2081)
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments279279 forecasters
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?04 Feb 2028 (28 Jul 2026 17:25 - Sep 2031)957676 comments640640 forecasters04 Feb 2028 (28 Jul 2026 17:25 - Sep 2031)