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13 comments
132 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%chance
2 comments
55 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

87%chance

Key Factors

9 comments
69 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

10%chance
1 comment
48 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

21 comments
310 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
44 comments
436 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance
7 comments
16 forecasters

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo
3 comments
53 forecasters

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

9%chance
3% this week
8 comments
35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

3 comments
42 forecasters

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

35%chance

Key Factors