Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?40% chance55 comments44 forecasters40%chance
What percentage of Coefficient Giving's grantmaking will go to AI safety in the following years?55 comments1010 forecasters
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111818 comments1818 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?90% chance755 comments6868 forecasters90%chance
Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?69% chance222 comments182182 forecasters69%chance
Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?9% chance333 comments8787 forecasters9%chance
Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?result: no41212 comments3131 forecastersResolvedNo
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?57% chance222 comments8989 forecasters57%chance
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?40% chance1355 comments4848 forecasters40%chance
When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?26 Jun 2027 (02 Dec 2026 - 27 Oct 2028)1388 comments8585 forecasters26 Jun 2027 (02 Dec 2026 - 27 Oct 2028)
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4242 forecasters
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?85% chance272626 comments152152 forecasters85%chance
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?85% chance181818 comments151151 forecasters85%chance
When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?21 Mar 2027 (22 Aug 2026 - 14 Mar 2028)21212 comments2222 forecasters21 Mar 2027 (22 Aug 2026 - 14 Mar 2028)
When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?22 comments22 forecasters
When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?111 comment5454 forecasters
When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?0 comments33 forecasters
When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following Biological and Chemical risk levels?0 comments22 forecasters
When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?10 comments