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Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%chance

AI safety and timelines

8
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

83.3%chance

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

57%chance

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

10
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Intersections between nuclear risk and AI

5
no comments0
Nuclear Risk Tournament

AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research

10
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%chance