Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?11212 comments2323 forecasters
When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?18 Apr 2027 (02 Sep 2026 - 20 May 2028)21212 comments2020 forecasters18 Apr 2027 (02 Sep 2026 - 20 May 2028)
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments333333 forecasters30%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance241414 comments145145 forecasters99%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?28% chance374444 comments471471 forecasters28%chance
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?83% chance644 comments6262 forecasters83%chance
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?41% chance1533 comments8686 forecasters41%chance
Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?555 comments2424 forecasters
When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?28 May 2028 (03 Apr 2027 - 06 Apr 2030)1377 comments8383 forecasters28 May 2028 (03 Apr 2027 - 06 Apr 2030)
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4242 forecasters
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?85% chance171818 comments149149 forecasters85%chance
When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?22 comments22 forecasters
Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?10% chance211 comment8080 forecasters10%chance
Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?48% chance222 comments7070 forecasters48%chance
When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?111 comment5454 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?0 comments22 forecasters
When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?10 comments
When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?0 comments66 forecasters
When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Instrumental Reasoning risk levels?0 comments11 forecaster
When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?0 comments33 forecasters