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Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

23% chance

1

820

820 forecasters

23%chance

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

85% chance

5

59

59 forecasters

85%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

98% chance

23

143

143 forecasters

98%chance

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

result: no

4

16

16 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

327

327 forecasters

30%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25% chance

37

469

469 forecasters

25%chance

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

41

41 forecasters

When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?

18 Dec 2027 (30 Jan 2027 - 20 Nov 2029)

12

83

83 forecasters

18 Dec 2027

(30 Jan 2027 - 20 Nov 2029)

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

76% chance

25

147

147 forecasters

76%chance

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

51% chance

2

72

72 forecasters

51%chance

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

11% chance

2

80

80 forecasters

11%chance

When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?

15 Nov 2027 (09 Dec 2026 - 18 May 2029)

2

17

17 forecasters

15 Nov 2027

(09 Dec 2026 - 18 May 2029)

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?

2

2 forecasters

Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?

result: no

4

31

31 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?

33% chance

54

54 forecasters

33%chance

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

42% chance

15

85

85 forecasters

42%chance

Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?

1

20

20 forecasters

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

1

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

87% chance

-1

35

35 forecasters

87%chance

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

40% chance

11

45

45 forecasters

40%chance

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

1

54

54 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

2

2 forecasters