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31 forecasters

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

30%chance

5% this week

37 forecasters

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

9%chance

293 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

429 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

55 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

85%chance

106 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

10%chance

16 forecasters

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo

130 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%chance

35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

42 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?