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Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?
Closed
59
38 comments
38
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
32%
13
45 comments
45
๐ Quarterly Cup ๐
Will a rogue Artificial Intelligence system, acting autonomously, cause at least the following numbers of deaths before 2050?
100
?
1,000
?
10,000
?
2 others
8 comments
8
When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezumaโs Revenge?
Closed
23
42 comments
42
Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?
Closed
17
8 comments
8
When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?
Closed
10
11 comments
11
AI Safety
Can AI outperform superforecasters by 2030?
no comments
0
Threshold 2030 (Day One)
How many named machine learning advancements will have been autonomously discovered by AI systems without human intervention by 2030?
no comments
0
Threshold 2030 (Day One)
Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?
Closed
6
6 comments
6
In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?
Closed
5
3 comments
3
AI Technical Benchmarks
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