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Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?
Closed
29
6 comments
6
Pandemic Series (2018)
Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?
Closed
13
3 comments
3
Pandemic Series (2018)
Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?
Closed
10
12 comments
12
When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?
Closed
10
11 comments
11
AI Safety
Can AI outperform superforecasters by 2030?
no comments
0
Threshold 2030 (Day One)
Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?
20%
4
2 comments
2
Zvi's Community
Predictions as Public Works Project โย What Metaculus Is Building Next
12
no comments
0
What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates?
Dec 14, 2024:
11.5
29 comments
29
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025?
No Restriction
78%
Civil Liability Laws
18%
Mandatory Disclosure Requirements
10%
4 others
10
37 comments
37
Regulation of AI
When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus
2027-02-24
1
2 comments
2
David Mathers' Community
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