Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?
Closed
21
15 comments
15
What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?
2025:
54.8
11
14 comments
14
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
When will a commercial ballooning venture receive approval to begin passenger flights to the stratosphere?
Closed
3
5 comments
5
When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?
Terran R
Jan 1, 2026
Neutron
Aug 3, 2025
New Glenn
Dec 29, 2024
3 others
19
71 comments
71
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?
SpaceX
63%
NASA
23%
CNSA
20%
2 others
22
1 comment
1
How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?
2024:
233
7
9 comments
9
What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?
125
15
72 comments
72
What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?
633
21
39 comments
39
To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?
Resolved :
No
38
16 comments
16
To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?
Resolved :
No
27
14 comments
14
Load more