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Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
67%
Haiti
60%
52 others
31
208 comments
208
What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?
Resolved :
91.3
28 forecasters
3
5 comments
5
Will there be โฅ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?
Resolved :
Yes
286 forecasters
31
155 comments
155
Israel-Gaza Conflict
When will there cease to be Maronite President of Lebanon, a Sunni Prime Minister of Lebanon, or a Shia Speaker of Parliament of Lebanon?
Resolved :
Nov 28, 2022
8 forecasters
2
8 comments
8
Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022?
Azerbaijan
707k
Haiti
208k
Sri Lanka
172k
4 others
10
6 comments
6
Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World
2
no comments
0
Metaculus Journal Archives
Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?
Resolved :
No
129 forecasters
10
33 comments
33
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World
9
9 comments
9
Metaculus Journal Archives
