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Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?

17

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

145 forecasters

19

How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?

Resolved :33.9M

11

Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?

150 forecasters

20

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?

10

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?

10

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?

3

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

212 forecasters

21

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?

Resolved :1.21k

4

Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

6

Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round