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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
95%
1460 forecasters
221
146 comments
146
AGI Outcomes
Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016?
Resolved :
Yes
116 forecasters
47
32 comments
32
AI Demonstrations
Will Lee Sedol defeat AlphaGo in any of the three games remaining?
Resolved :
Yes
73 forecasters
20
18 comments
18
When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?
Resolved :
Jan 24, 2019
258 forecasters
73
49 comments
49
AI Demonstrations
Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?
Resolved :
No
181 forecasters
10
19 comments
19
OK, fine, can FIVE human Go masters defeat AlphaGo?
Resolved :
No
17 forecasters
1 comment
1
What if Mooreโs Law breaks ?
3
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI safety and timelines
8
2 comments
2
AI Progress Essay Contest
condition
Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?
49 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?
35%
35%
US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?
20%
20%
11
2 comments
2
What MMLU benchmark score will Google DeepMind's Gemini model have on release?
Resolved :
71.8
19 forecasters
8
16 comments
16
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