Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
ๆ
Feed Home
๐ฅ
Communities
๐ค๐ญ
AI Benchmarking
Topics
โจ๐
Top Questions
๐ฝ๐ณ๏ธ
US Election Stakes
๐๏ธ๐
Global Elections
๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
Gaza Conflict
โณ๐
5 Years After AGI
๐ฆ ๐ฉบ
Mpox outbreak
๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ
Ukraine Conflict
๐ฆ๐ฆ
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
๐ค
Artificial Intelligence
๐งฌ
Health & Pandemics
๐
Environment & Climate
โฃ๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
69%
Afghanistan
60%
70 others
20
63 comments
63
Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?
Montenegro
95%
North Macedonia
83.5%
Albania
81%
17 others
23
51 comments
51
Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018?
Resolved :
No
86 forecasters
3 comments
3
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022?
Azerbaijan
707k
Haiti
208k
Sri Lanka
172k
4 others
10
6 comments
6
Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
When will the ArmeniaโTurkey border reopen?
2025-12-29
30 forecasters
10
27 comments
27
When will the following countries have open borders with all Schengen Area members?
Albania
Jan 11, 2035
Serbia
Jan 11, 2035
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Jan 11, 2035
15 others
3
1 comment
1
Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World
2
no comments
0
Metaculus Journal Archives
Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?
Resolved :
No
92 forecasters
6
11 comments
11
๐ Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup ๐
Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?
Resolved :
Yes
110 forecasters
9
36 comments
36
๐ Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup ๐
Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates?
2025:
3%
39 forecasters
10
20 comments
20
Load More
