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How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?
Resolved :
12.5k
119 forecasters
15
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Tournament
How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?
Resolved :
3.8k
71 forecasters
4
5 comments
5
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Nuclear risk funding & labor
3
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?
Resolved :
Annulled
118 forecasters
9
19 comments
19
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?
Resolved :
No
88 forecasters
2
9 comments
9
Nuclear Risk Tournament
How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?
Resolved :
66
55 forecasters
1
13 comments
13
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?
Resolved :
No
90 forecasters
3
14 comments
14
Nuclear Risk Tournament
How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?
Resolved :
100
75 forecasters
2
9 comments
9
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?
3.9%
25 forecasters
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?
3.6%
17 forecasters
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
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