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Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
20%
58
67 comments
67
Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?
Resolved :
No
23
18 comments
18
Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?
Resolved :
No
5
10 comments
10
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
83
102 comments
102
Verity
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?
80%
29
31 comments
31
Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?
11%
37
35 comments
35
Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?
Resolved :
No
19
41 comments
41
50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
1.21k
17
19 comments
19
AGI Outcomes
Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?
Resolved :
No
41
53 comments
53
Nuclear Risk Tournament
What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?
1.69e-1
3
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
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