Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?
Terran R
Jan 1, 2026
Neutron
Aug 21, 2025
Starship
Jan 5, 2025
3 others
19
73 comments
73
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?
29%
357 forecasters
7
4 comments
4
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
When will the 1,000th person reach space?
2034-06-24
177 forecasters
25
40 comments
40
By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?
17.5
234 forecasters
42
49 comments
49
Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?
2.98
76 forecasters
7
34 comments
34
When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?
Resolved :
Jul 20, 2021
57 forecasters
11
25 comments
25
When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?
2031-12-28
23 forecasters
8
4 comments
4
Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?
Resolved :
28
42 forecasters
10
20 comments
20
Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?
Resolved :
No
33 forecasters
13
21 comments
21
By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?
6.5%
45 forecasters
11
8 comments
8
Load More