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When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

778 forecasters

59

108 comments108

Effective Institutions Project

Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?

6

Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?

8

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

6

When will OpenAI next update its approach to alignment research?

Resolved :Feb 24, 2023

9

Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?

5

Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?

Resolved :Annulled

14

AI Demonstrations

Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?

161 forecasters

16

Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?

7

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?

224 forecasters

23

Regulation of AI