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Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?
3%
58
109 comments
109
By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?
2%
39
108 comments
108
Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?
4%
40
35 comments
35
Biosecurity Tournament
How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?
7.99
8
36 comments
36
Biosecurity Tournament
What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?
Orthomyxoviridae
60%
Other 24 known HIVF
25%
Coronaviridae
17%
1 other
17
7 comments
7
Biosecurity Tournament
Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?
30%
8
26 comments
26
Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?
1%
9
45 comments
45
Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?
0%
10
60 comments
60
[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?
Resolved :
Above upper bound
14
95 comments
95
How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]
Resolved :
Above upper bound
139
356 comments
356
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