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Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025?
No Restriction
80%
Civil Liability Laws
12%
Mandatory Disclosure Requirements
10%
4 others
10
37 comments
37
Regulation of AI
Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?
Level 3
25%
Level 2
3%
Level 1
1%
10
9 comments
9
Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
1%
80 forecasters
3
2 comments
2
AI Safety
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
84%
145 forecasters
19
17 comments
17
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?
56%
58 forecasters
4
8 comments
8
Regulation of AI
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
7%
125 forecasters
15
17 comments
17
AI Safety
Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?
Resolved :
No
60 forecasters
11
10 comments
10
Will security patches against "Specter-NG" vulnerabilities be available for end-users by September 2018?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
68 forecasters
3
19 comments
19
Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?
5%
107 forecasters
23
28 comments
28
When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?
2045-12-05
18 forecasters
15
10 comments
10
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