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Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

6

Most useful forecastint tools/data sources

26

When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?

Resolved :May 4, 2022

13

AI Technical Benchmarks

Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?

1

What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?

6

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?

100 forecasters

7

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?

10

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?

5

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

5

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?

3

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round