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Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016?
Resolved :
Yes
116 forecasters
47
32 comments
32
AI Demonstrations
Commercial speech recognition to soon be better than human?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
59 forecasters
10
8 comments
8
When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversaries?
2026-07-09
78 forecasters
15
8 comments
8
AI Safety
Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?
13%
95 forecasters
17
22 comments
22
AI Technical Benchmarks
When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?
2030-12-26
16 forecasters
1
no comments
0
AGI Outcomes
Will transformative AI come with a bang?
13
5 comments
5
AI Progress Essay Contest
Hyperbolic takeoff
7
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
The Westinghouse Contingency
3
5 comments
5
AI Progress Essay Contest
Deep Learning ourselves into the unknown
3
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
2023:
2×10²⁵
78 forecasters
18
22 comments
22
Forecasting Our World in Data
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