Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?
50%
20 percentage points this week
1863 forecasters
176
105 comments
105
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
54.2%
2 or 3
34.4%
4 or 5
7.3%
3 others
5
2 comments
2
Future of AI
Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?
81%
272 forecasters
25
44 comments
44
When will a single reusable rocket stage be used for the 25th time?
Resolved :
Jan 10, 2025
2025-03-13
38 forecasters
8
26 comments
26
Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?
1%
4256 forecasters
906
452 comments
452
Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?
1%
101 forecasters
8
12 comments
12
Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?
0.5%
252 forecasters
16
14 comments
14
Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?
29%
294 forecasters
27
74 comments
74
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?
3%
267 forecasters
24
57 comments
57
Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?
6%
436 forecasters
55
54 comments
54
Load More