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Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?
99%
42
69 comments
69
AI Demonstrations
Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?
99%
27
26 comments
26
AI Demonstrations
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
80%
19
17 comments
17
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31
50%
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31
50%
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31
37.8%
2 others
20
19 comments
19
Future of AI
Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
37%
38
40 comments
40
Ragnarรถk Series
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.43
14
25 comments
25
AGI Outcomes
50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
1.21k
17
19 comments
19
AGI Outcomes
The Patchwork Future: An Exercise in Interpolation
5
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Safety โฉ AI/DL Research
10
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
2023:
16
22 comments
22
Forecasting Our World in Data
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