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Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

115 forecasters

16

When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?

8

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

7

When will the first FAAMG company have a workforce that is 50% or fewer men?

7

Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?

3

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

124 forecasters

21

Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?

8

When will X, formerly Twitter, cease to be commonly referred to as "X, formerly Twitter"?

5

In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?

131 forecasters

40

AI Demonstrations

Will Facebook flight-test the Aquila drone in the U.S early this year?

7