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Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?

161 forecasters

29

Fermi Paradox Series

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

9

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

356 forecasters

55

Ragnarök Series

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

6

Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?

644 forecasters

44

Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?

174 forecasters

37

Fermi Paradox Series

Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?

175 forecasters

26

Fermi Paradox Series

Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?

191 forecasters

42

Fermi Paradox Series

Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?

163 forecasters

28

Fermi Paradox Series

Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?

175 forecasters

30

Fermi Paradox Series