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Will humans go extinct before 2100?
0.1%
chance
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
Aug 2044
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
26
8 comments
8
When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD?
2075
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
22%
chance
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?
4%
chance
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?
37%
chance
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
condition
OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?
95 forecasters
if yes
if no
Human Extinction by 2100
1%
1%
Human Extinction by 2100
4%
4%
14
11 comments
11
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