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When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?

104 forecasters

19

AI Demonstrations

By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?

271 forecasters

37

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

11

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

117 forecasters

33

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

241 forecasters

49

Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

4

Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

10

Predicting Polygenic Selection for IQ

14

Metaculus Journal Archives

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?