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Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
67%
Haiti
60%
52 others
31
210 comments
210
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
69%
Afghanistan
63%
70 others
20
59 comments
59
Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?
United States
50%
China
33%
United Arab Emirates
10%
6 others
16
42 comments
42
Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?
10k / month
27.8%
30k / month
16%
300k / year
14%
2 others
10
14 comments
14
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD
4%
Google
3%
Nvidia
2%
7
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?
2050-01-01
104 forecasters
8
44 comments
44
What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?
0.169
28 forecasters
3
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024?
Q3 (ends Sep 2024):
1.9M
7 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
Chinese AI Chips
How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024?
Q1 (ends Mar 2024):
1.15B
7 forecasters
6
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
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