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Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
2%
Japan
1%
Ukraine
1%
6 others
12
17 comments
17
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
15%
25
71 comments
71
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
2%
13
26 comments
26
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
56%
63
153 comments
153
Verity
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
if yes
if no
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?
50%
50%
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?
50%
50%
7
2 comments
2
2024 Electoral Consequences
condition
Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?
if yes
if no
US Iran War Before 2025?
2%
2%
US Iran War Before 2025?
2%
2%
3
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
68%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
4%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 16 and 23 May 2018?
Resolved :
No
1
1 comment
1
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will Iran announce it is enriching uranium above the 4.0% level before 23 May 2018?
Resolved :
No
4
6 comments
6
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?
Resolved :
No
3
6 comments
6
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
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