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condition
Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?
26 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Iran War Before 2025?
2%
2%
US Iran War Before 2025?
1%
1%
3
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?
0.9%
75 forecasters
14
14 comments
14
When will a West Balkan state next join the EU?
2029-11-23
42 forecasters
9
9 comments
9
When will Serbia recognize Kosovo?
2043-11-29
31 forecasters
4
7 comments
7
When will the following countries have open borders with all Schengen Area members?
Albania
Jan 11, 2035
Serbia
Jan 11, 2035
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Jan 11, 2035
15 others
3
1 comment
1
Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?
Montenegro
97%
North Macedonia
87.5%
Albania
80%
17 others
23
51 comments
51
Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World
2
no comments
0
Metaculus Journal Archives
Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?
Resolved :
No
87 forecasters
5
12 comments
12
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
48 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
50%
50%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
21%
21%
5
1 comment
1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
How many UN members will recognize Kosovo at the end of 2025?
102
No
103
No
104 or 105
No
5 others
3
12 comments
12
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