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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2035
36%
2030
28%
2028
13%
2 others
75
364 comments
364
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
41%
984 forecasters
108
200 comments
200
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election?
Resolved :
Yes
16 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?
55%
55%
Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?
48%
48%
Resolved :
Annulled
48%
4
1 comment
1
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
Resolved :
No
48 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
45%
45%
Resolved :
Annulled
45%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
20%
20%
5
1 comment
1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
0.1%
22 forecasters
2
1 comment
1
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?
11 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
20%
20%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
36%
36%
1
3 comments
3
The Taiwan Tinderbox