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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

1947 forecasters

230

155 comments155

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1564 forecasters

203

499 comments499

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025?

Google DeepMind

3

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing

5

Regulation of AI

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

6

Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?

267 forecasters

45

AI Demonstrations

Commercial speech recognition to soon be better than human?

Resolved :Ambiguous60%

10

When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?

Resolved :Oct 2, 20182021-01-26

160 forecasters

40

AI Demonstrations

Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019?

Resolved :50.139.6

6

Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated before 2051?

13