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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1523 forecasters

201

482 comments482

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

6

Chinese AI Chips

Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?

616 forecasters

17

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Google DeepMind

9

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

June 30, 2025:94.7

12

AI Technical Benchmarks

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

20

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

31

160 comments160

When will the first major tech company offer a university course taught primarily by AI?

2

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

594 forecasters

94

What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?

23

AI Technical Benchmarks