M

🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
See all categories

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50.8%
421 forecasters
20%40%60%80%Jan 29Feb 02Feb 06Feb 10Feb 14Feb 18Feb 22Feb 26Mar 02Mar 06Mar 10Mar 14Mar 18Mar 22Mar 26
36
98

Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

11%
138 forecasters
10%20%30%40%50%Jan 29Feb 02Feb 06Feb 10Feb 14Feb 18Feb 22Feb 26Mar 02Mar 06Mar 10Mar 14Mar 18Mar 22Mar 26
11
16

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%
154 forecasters
0%5%10%15%20%Jan 29Feb 02Feb 06Feb 10Feb 14Feb 18Feb 22Feb 26Mar 02Mar 06Mar 10Mar 14Mar 18Mar 22Mar 26
13
2

By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?

60%
29 forecasters
30%40%50%60%70%80%Jan 29Feb 02Feb 06Feb 10Feb 14Feb 18Feb 22Feb 26Mar 02Mar 06Mar 10Mar 14Mar 18Mar 22Mar 26
9
2

When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parent(s) for doing so?

Sep 2050
15 forecasters
09 Feb 2022
11
25

When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?

Feb 2057
16 forecasters
10 Feb 2022
8
1

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

45%
30 forecasters
30%35%40%45%50%55%Jan 29Feb 02Feb 06Feb 10Feb 14Feb 18Feb 22Feb 26Mar 02Mar 06Mar 10Mar 14Mar 18Mar 22Mar 26
2
8

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

33%
29 forecasters
Jan 29Feb 02Feb 06Feb 10Feb 14Feb 18Feb 22Feb 26Mar 02Mar 06Mar 10Mar 14Mar 18Mar 22Mar 26
2
1

What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?

42.9%
57 forecasters
0%
10
13

When will it be possible to continue one's growth after their growth plates have closed?

Jun 2073
14 forecasters
02 Aug 2022
7
14

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.

Learn more about how we use cookies in our Privacy Policy