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Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

6

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

20

Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?

308 forecasters

55

AI Technical Benchmarks

When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

10

AI Technical Benchmarks

How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?

Resolved :3.94k

4

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?

Resolved :8.07k

3

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?

1

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?

Resolved :17.2k

4

Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5

AI Progress Essay Contest

AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research

10

AI Progress Essay Contest