Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?
15%
43 forecasters
3
22 comments
22
Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?
45%
47 forecasters
9
4 comments
4
How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?
Five
97.07%
Six
2.53%
Three or fewer
0.1%
3 others
5
11 comments
11
Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?
Resolved :
No
91 forecasters
18
19 comments
19
What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?
96.1
24 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?
Resolved :
4.47k
50 forecasters
4
16 comments
16
How much sea level rise will there be in 2100, in millimeters?
586
27 forecasters
10
10 comments
10
What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?
2025:
14.4
17 forecasters
3 comments
3
What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years?
2025:
18.3
22 forecasters
2
16 comments
16
What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?
2025:
2.21
25 forecasters
1
9 comments
9
Load More