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What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025?

9

What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?

7

What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates?

November 2026:32.4

102 forecasters

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

November 2026:20.9

136 forecasters

4

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2025:3×10¹⁸

7

Forecasting Our World in Data

The Understanding AI Series With Timothy Lee

8

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

New scoring system