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Bridgewater 2025
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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

14 Nov 2026
1595 forecasters
213
523

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Feb 2031
1518 forecasters
186
519

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50.8%
421 forecasters
36
98

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama
24.34%
AI-Dystopia
24.09%
Singularia
20.07%
2 others
36
167

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
3

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

1%
214 forecasters
23
31

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%
379 forecasters
58
20

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

97%
172 forecasters
32
16

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1.5%
431 forecasters
49
16

Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?

50%
73 forecasters
16
0

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