MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

Bridgewater 2025

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind

6

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

20

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

23

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

6

Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025?

Google DeepMind

4

How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

5

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

9

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

7

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

5

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

5