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Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?
2%
21
9 comments
9
Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?
45%
4
5 comments
5
Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?
28%
7
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Nuclear proliferation, force sizes, & yields
6
6 comments
6
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?
Resolved :
No
4
12 comments
12
Nuclear Risk Tournament
What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?
271
3
2 comments
2
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
2%
2
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?
72%
4
3 comments
3
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?
Resolved :
No
1
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
8%
-1
2 comments
2
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
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