Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
ๆ
Feed Home
๐ค๐ญ
AI Benchmarking
Topics
โจ๐
Top Questions
๐ฝ๐ณ๏ธ
US Election Stakes
๐๏ธ๐
Global Elections
๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
Gaza Conflict
โณ๐
5 Years After AGI
๐ฆ ๐ฉบ
Mpox outbreak
๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ
Ukraine Conflict
๐ฆ๐ฆ
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
๐ค
Artificial Intelligence
๐งฌ
Health & Pandemics
๐
Environment & Climate
โฃ๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
67%
Haiti
60%
52 others
31
210 comments
210
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
69%
Afghanistan
63%
70 others
20
59 comments
59
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
2025-12-21
222 forecasters
34
61 comments
61
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?
Montenegro
96%
North Macedonia
86%
Albania
80%
17 others
23
51 comments
51
Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?
3.2%
54 forecasters
7
11 comments
11
Will Turkey recognize the Armenian genocide before 2050?
12%
17 forecasters
8
5 comments
5
Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018?
Resolved :
No
133 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?
Resolved :
No
125 forecasters
6
2 comments
2
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?
99%
206 forecasters
24
20 comments
20
Load More