Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trump
50.2%
Kamala Harris
50%
J.D. Vance
0.2%
17 others
289
3k comments
3k
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
if yes
if no
US is a NATO Member until 2029?
95%
95%
US is a NATO Member until 2029?
99%
99%
7
13 comments
13
2024 Electoral Consequences
condition
Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
if yes
if no
Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
50%
50%
Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
61%
61%
2
5 comments
5
condition
Trump Felony Conviction Before Election?
Resolved :
Yes
if yes
if no
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
60%
60%
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
80%
80%
Resolved :
Annulled
4
2 comments
2
Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?
50%
10
9 comments
9
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
if yes
if no
Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?
90%
90%
Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?
73%
73%
5
no comments
0
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
if yes
if no
Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?
6%
6%
Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?
36%
36%
3
no comments
0
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
if yes
if no
USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?
26%
26%
USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?
6%
6%
2
2 comments
2
condition
Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
if yes
if no
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
60%
60%
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
49%
49%
Resolved :
Annulled
5
3 comments
3
Conditional Cup
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
if yes
if no
BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025?
15%
15%
BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025?
4%
4%
2
3 comments
3
Conditional Cup
Load more