Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?
2024:
37.1
18 forecasters
6
10 comments
10
Climate Tipping Points Round 1
How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?
74.2k
51 forecasters
13
9 comments
9
A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?
Resolved :
No
78 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in May 2018?
Resolved :
139
51 forecasters
4
4 comments
4
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?
36.9%
148 forecasters
15
17 comments
17
What will be the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050?
14.5
11 forecasters
8
8 comments
8
The Colorado River and the Southwestern US Under Climate Change
9
1 comment
1
Metaculus Journal Archives
If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?
587
8 forecasters
10
no comments
0
What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?
49.3
11 forecasters
8
6 comments
6
When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?
Resolved :
Above upper bound
54 forecasters
5
13 comments
13
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Load More