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Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?

275 forecasters

30

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

Human Extinction by 2100

Human Extinction by 2100

14

Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?

185 forecasters

7

Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?

151 forecasters

28

Fermi Paradox Series

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

145 forecasters

13

Ragnarök Series

When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?

7

What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?

Resolved :1.41B

7

How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?

124 forecasters

15

Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?

124 forecasters

23

When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?

7

Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series