Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will China's GDP exceed the United States' GDP in any year before 2041?
59%
398 forecasters
58
48 comments
48
How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?
44.5
35 forecasters
7
2 comments
2
Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?
70%
13 forecasters
1 comment
1
Space Technology & Climate
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?
86%
38 forecasters
1
2 comments
2
The Bryan Caplan Collection
What will be the World GDP in 2028 in trillions of 2010 USD?
112
97 forecasters
17
17 comments
17
Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?
15%
143 forecasters
28
26 comments
26
When will India become a World Bank high-income country?
2048-04-13
99 forecasters
18
31 comments
31
When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?
2050-01-01
104 forecasters
8
44 comments
44
Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?
Resolved :
No
307 forecasters
34
42 comments
42
If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?
60%
167 forecasters
26
38 comments
38
AGI Outcomes
Load More