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Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
27%
247 forecasters
28
15 comments
15
Ragnarรถk Series
What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?
0.169
28 forecasters
3
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?
66%
223 forecasters
24
104 comments
104
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will a world war begin before 2151?
60%
408 forecasters
55
38 comments
38
Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?
3%
195 forecasters
23
15 comments
15
What will be the highest US debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023?
Resolved :
Annulled
34 forecasters
6
14 comments
14
What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?
0.848
36 forecasters
13
7 comments
7
What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?
Resolved :
Above upper bound
40 forecasters
4
6 comments
6
Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?
Resolved :
No
153 forecasters
7
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Tournament
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?
52%
157 forecasters
17
33 comments
33
The Taiwan Tinderbox
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