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When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
2025-03-30
777 forecasters
59
108 comments
108
Effective Institutions Project
Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?
2%
708 forecasters
53
202 comments
202
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
25%
Israel
20%
Pakistan
10%
5 others
6
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?
31%
1233 forecasters
148
242 comments
242
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2027-09-29
1523 forecasters
201
482 comments
482
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
20%
1321 forecasters
138
200 comments
200
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-07-31
1432 forecasters
176
488 comments
488
AGI Outcomes
Will the Universe end?
74%
510 forecasters
31
48 comments
48
Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?
95%
495 forecasters
45
39 comments
39
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
2028
30%
2026
25%
2025
20%
1 other
7
21 comments
21
Effective Institutions Project
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