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Bridgewater 2025

AI Benchmarking

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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1528 forecasters

187

522 comments522

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1470 forecasters

77

343 comments343

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

13

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

1033 forecasters

73

122 comments122

Effective Institutions Project

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

1418 forecasters

139

229 comments229

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

2368 forecasters

249

173 comments173

Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?

2491 forecasters

164

260 comments260

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

993 forecasters

109

201 comments201

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

9

Effective Institutions Project

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1600 forecasters

213

522 comments522

AI Progress Essay Contest

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