Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
Resolved :
No
1%
1d
1w
2m
all
0%
50%
100%
Apr 2021
Oct 2021
Apr 2022
Oct 2022
Apr 2023
Oct 2023
Apr 2024
now
Based on 669 predictions by 210 forecasters
Metaculus